#NYTIMES NEEDLE UPDATE#
But the needle was ready to quickly update that probability. That percentage was reasonable given how well presidential candidates with similar leads in the polls had done historically. The New York Times needle in 2016įour years ago, the needle gave Clinton an 85% probability of winning based on pre-election day polls that suggested she was ahead in the race. But the needle, which the Times has since used for US congressional elections, did what we should all do when we want to understand what the future holds: It started with an educated opinion about what would happen, and then it changed its mind. It’s getting harder to find Nikes-and that’s just how Nike wants itĪs a result of those drastic swings, many election watchers maligned the needle (many still do).
By 10 pm ET that evening, the needle pointed to a 95% chance of Trump winning the election. But as results came in, Clinton’s chances began to dissipate.
At the beginning of the night, the visual, which would become known as the “ the needle,” showed an 85% chance of Clinton winning. On election night 2016, the New York Times posted a live forecast showing the probability that Hillary Clinton or Trump would win the electoral college, based on a prediction model created by the Times’ data journalists. Many Americans found out that Donald Trump would be their next president from a needle. presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden are seen outside of an early voting site. President Donald Trump and Democratic U.S.
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